Development and application of a crossbreeding simulation model for goat production systems in tropical regions.

A deterministic simulation model was developed to estimate biological production efficiency and to evaluate goat crossbreeding systems under tropical conditions. The model involves 5 production systems: pure indigenous, first filial generations (F1), backcross (BC), composite breeds of F1 (CMP(F1)), and BC (CMP(BC)). The model first simulates growth, reproduction, lactation, and energy intakes of a doe and a kid on a 1-d time step at the individual level and thereafter the outputs are integrated into the herd dynamics program. The ability of the model to simulate individual performances was tested under a base situation. The simulation results represented daily BW changes, ME requirements, and milk yield and the estimates were within the range of published data. Two conventional goat production scenarios (an intensive milk production scenario and an integrated goat and oil palm production scenario) in Malaysia were examined. The simulation results of the intensive milk production scenario showed the greater production efficiency of the CMP(BC) and CMP(F1) systems and decreased production efficiency of the F1 and BC systems. The results of the integrated goat and oil palm production scenario showed that the production efficiency and stocking rate were greater for the indigenous goats than for the crossbreeding systems.